Aid to banks: bad calculation Sarkozy

To avoid being accused of a "gift" to banks, Nicolas Sarkozy promised Thursday that his plan worth 360 billion euros would bring in money to the taxpayer. His reasoning? The money is loaned to banks, which will repay. "It did not cost a cent euro French, has hammered the president. And that will bring 1.4 billion of interest, to finance social measures. "

The government was quite difficult, Friday, to justify such an encryption. When questioned, the Elysée has returned to the office of Eric Woerth, who forwarded our inquiry to the firm of Christine Largarde ... who has not responded. In fact, Sarkozy has made many mistakes in his reasoning. First, he had not mentioned the rescue of Dexia. The state bought 1 billion of shares of Franco-Belgian group to 9.9 euros each. Securities whose value has since collapsed. They are now 2.3 euros. Less potential value, 770 million.

Then, the president forgot to say that to lend money to banks, the State must itself become indebted, and thus pay interest. While it borrows at a rate below that at which they reprête money, but the final operation is much less profitable. Depending on the case, the state's debt between 2.7 and 3.5%. And he lent money at rates of 4% (for the part of the plan to improve the liquidity of banks) and 8% (for capital advances). And the proliferation of these operations will increase the risk taken by the state, thus reducing the confidence of investors vis-à-vis government bonds, which will require higher rates.

Difficult in these conditions, how the state will win with this rescue plan. But at present it is not clear how the gain may be 1.4 billion. In his speech, Sarkozy was based on the fact that the government had already "used 25 billion" to "help banks. However, this figure does not correspond to reality.

On February 4, the State had made available to banks 28.6 billion euros in loans and 10.5 billion euros in the form of equity-refundable. If we use the basis of 25 billion cited by Sarkozy, yields a net gain (ie, interest earnings, 4%, less the cost of debt) for the State about 320 million euros. If one takes the sum actually paid, we arrive at a net profit of 900 million. In both cases, a difference in size with 1.4 billion Sarkozy.