Joined together for Monday in Paris, the intergovernmental Group of experts on the evolution of the climate (Giec), has returned its Friday conclusions. If no solved action is undertaken, the temperatures should rise several degrees, the extreme phenomena such as heat waves or strong precipitations should be reinforced. The climatic reheating will seriously affect planet by the end of the century. Here first conclusions of the report:

• The man is the principal cause of these reheatings. The world experts of the climate reinforced their conviction that the man is responsible for “the essence of the increase observed on the total average temperature since the middle in 20th century”. They assign to this human impact on the climate a certainty of 90%, against 66% in their last report/ratio in 2001. Susan Solomon, president of the scientific working group estimates that “all converges to show the essential share of the man in the reheating of the climate”.

• The temperatures should increase by 1,8 to 4 degrees from here 2100, involving, in addition to the rise of the level of the oceans, of strong precipitations and more frequent heatwaves, as well as cyclones plus violent one. Last and future CO2 emissions the “will continue to contribute to the reheating and the rise in the sea level during more than one millenium”, taking into account their lifespan in the atmosphere. These values are averages, and the reheating could be raised more, going up to 6,4 degrees in the scenario more “the pollutant” established by Giec.

• The sea level could rise from 18 to 59 centimetres from here 2100, an estimate which does not take into account a possible accelerated cast iron of the ice in Groënland and in the Antarctic. The report/ratio thus comprises a narrower fork, in its projections on the rise in the sea level, that the version 2001 of the document, which laid down a rise from 9 to 88 cm. Giec underlines however that one should not “exclude from the higher values” because of imperfect knowledge of the process of cast iron of the plates of ice in the Antarctic and in Groënland. The French climatologist Jean Jouzel explains that a “average rise in 40 cm of the level of the ocean would mean that 200 million people must leave their hearth and their place of life”.

All the scenarios of Giec are carried out without taking account of possible actions of the international community to counter the climatic change. “Without wanting to be alarmist, it should be noted that the emissions (of CO2) continued to increase by 6,4 billion by tons to 7,2 billion tons in 5 years, with for consequences of the CO2 concentrations which do nothing but increase the reheating: the least which one can say it is that one is not on the way of wisdom”, estimates Jean Jouzel.

The ecological organization Greenpeace estimates that the report/ratio of Giec must push the governments with the action. Association indicates in an official statement which “if the last report/ratio of Giec (in 2001) were a call to be awaked, this new report/ratio is a siren of alarm”. “The good news is that our comprehension of the climatic system and the human impact in its opposition enormously improved. The bad news, it is that the more one knows some, plus our future appears dangerous”, continues Greenpeace. Association préveint: “The message addressed to the governments is clear, and the possibility of acting is reduced quickly”.